Market Outlook for 2013, is it as bad as they say!?

Well its no secret that there are some questions to be answered when looking at the Canadian Housing Market. The media sure does a good enough job of letting everyone know that. You've heard it before but I'm going to say it again, DON'T BELIEVE EVERYTHING YOU SEE ON TV! Good news just doesn't sell. I tend to trust the predictions of those that have consistently proven themselves in the past, CMHC(Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation). If you read back to my post this time last year, and their predictions you'll see they were pretty bang on(we saw a 2.3% increase). I recently sat in on a conference with CMHC for their Market Update for 2013 and this year is going to be much of the same. A slight increase with the rate of inflation, but overall the market here in Ottawa will remain level. All of you sitting back waiting to purchase hoping for prices to fall, best of luck to ya. Here are some points of interest that I noted during the Conference.

Ottawa Market:
- Ottawa median household income remained the highest amongst large cities in Canada coming in just shy of 100k/year, with average home price at $350k. To put that in perspective, Vancouver with a much higher avg home price came in closer to 60k/year!

- Ottawa saw a market stall due to the uncertainty of employment with government cuts but remember they are only cutting 1% of job force. Not a big deal. Infact, Ottawa saw a 3% employment growth attributed to service sectors and public admin. Unemployment rate for 2013 is looking to stay about the same as 2012.

- The last large decline in our market was in 95-96 where there were MANY more job cuts than we are seeing now. Sale prices only went down 2.4% then, and interest rates were at 9% and not historically low like they are now. Just think about that. More jobs, less interest, sales shouldn't be affected all that much.

- Ottawa is creating jobs! The LRT is expected to create approx. 20,000 jobs, the Landsdowne project will create a bundle and The Rideau Center will be doing a 250million dollar reno!

- We are currently sitting in a balanced market with a sales to listing ratio of 40-60%. If patterns stay the same we should be seeing some good growth come 2014.

- We expect a slight decline in sales for the first and second quarter of this year and they are expected to turn around for the 3rd and 4th.

- in 2012 Stittsville and Southeast Ottawa saw the highest increase in sales volume while Southeast saw the highest increase in price.

- New home construction in Ottawa hit over 6000 units in 2012(6026) and is expected to drop slightly for 2013 at approx. 5200. Breakdown of those units being built will be the same with 25% single homes, 25% rows and semis, and 50% apartments.

- Cheaper to get resale still! Keeps you closer to the downtown core as well. 2012 saw new home prices for singles hitting approx. 23% higher than resale homes!!!

So all in all Ottawa, we will be just fine. The worst thing you can do is just sit on your hands and do nothing.

Canadian Economy:
- GDP growth will be driven by business investment
- Housing Market expected to moderate
- Week demand globally for our exports will restrain growth slightly
- Interest rates to remain at historic lows as the states announced they shouldn't be changing until 2015.

Global Economy:
- European GDP Decline
- Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, still not out of the danger zone yet
- 11.7% unemployment rate
- Germany starting to show some signs of growth
- Good news for Canada is that the majority of our exports go to the states, then some to China, Japan, South Korea, and only approx. 6% go to European Countries.
- US Economy is starting to recover even though they showed a slight decline in the 4th quarter attributed to the scare of the "fiscal Cliff".


Well there you have it. If you have any questions at anytime about our current market conditions, whether you should be buying or selling at this time. Please don't hesitate to ask.

Andrew Miller

- The last large decline in our market was in 95-96 where there were MANY more job cuts than we are seeing now. Sale prices only went down 2.4% then, and interest rates were at 9% and not historically low like they are now. Just think about that. More jobs, less interest, sales shouldn't be affected all that much.

Credit Reports - The good, the bad, and the ugly

Credit Reports. I know what you're thinking. What can be more exciting than talking about credit reports right? Well thats why I'm here to make it a bit more interesting than your average person talking about them would.

Yesterday I sat in on a presentation by CMHC which discussed the importance of ones credit report. Here's what I gathered from it all.

One major thing that came about was the misunderstanding that if your credit is constantly checked, it negatively affects your credit score. This is slightly misleading. When you are searching for a new rental and or a mortgage for a new home, each time your credit gets checked, it is documented however similar checks into ones credit gets bundled together and only impacts your actual score once. So that means you can apply to 10 different mortgage companies at once if you like and your score will only be impacted as though it was one incident.

So you have bad credit, like most of the population, or maybe even no credit and youre looking to buy a home. Just because you can't buy one right this second doesn't mean you can't get yourself in shape to buy one in the near future. Here are some tips on how to get yourself back into decent credit standing.

If you are a newcomer or borrower with no credit
- get a credit card
- pay your bills on time
- open a bank account and use it frequently

Maintain and improve
- Avoid changes in employment and your residence
- always pay bills on time
- pay bills in full on or before due
- pay debts as quick as possible
- keep balance below the limit(it is suggested to keep your credit cards below 35% of the limit so it doesn't negatively impact your score)
- reduce the number of credit applications
- contact creditors immediately if they are having trouble making payments, do it before to late

So what affects your credit score you ask? Here is what the score is mainly compiled of:
35% - Payment History(do you pay your bills, and on time?)
30% - Use of available Credit (Are all of your cards maxed out most the time?)
15% - length of credit history (Did you just get a credit card?)
10% - number of recent inquiries made about credit report.
10% - type of credit being used
(Phone bills are sometimes uses, utilities usually only once they hit collections)

It's also suggest that you pull a credit report on yourself. It is FREE in person or to have it mailed to you. One should get their report at least once a year to verify info is up to date and correct.

Scores
300-559 = POOR
660-774 = GOOD
760+ = EXCELLENT

CMHC's average credit score in their portfolio is an astounding 724!

www.fcac-acfc.gc.ca to further understand your credit report

Or feel free to give me a shout whenever you like.

Halloween is over, and there is nothing to be scared of in our market!

Halloween is now over and November has begun. Many people still seem frightened however and are continuing to ask me if I think that the prices in Ottawa are going to start dropping. My answer still remains the same. Don't hold your breath. There is nothing to be scared of in todays housing market in Ottawa. We are still considered one of the most stable markets in all of North America.

Here in Ottawa and Canada as a whole is doing just fine and has now begun to level off a little bit.

If you are thinking of buying a new home, you can rest assured that you will no longer be paying the inflated prices that we saw this past spring and summer.

If you were thinking of selling, there are still plenty of buyers out there looking to take advantage of the historically low interest rates that we still have.

That combined with the fact that here in Ottawa we are quite stable and despite what people say, in my opinion, prices are NOT going down they are just balancing out.

Feel free to contact me at anytime if you have any questions at all about the real estate market here in Ottawa and its surrounding areas.



Sincerely,


Andrew Miller
Sales Representative
Keller Williams Ottawa Realty Ltd.
Brokerage, Independently Owned and Operated
610 Bronson Avenue
Ottawa, Ontario K1S 4E6
Office: (613) 236-5959
Direct: (613) 447-7669
Fax: (613) 235-1515
Email: amiller@kwottawa.ca

Market Outlook for 2012 is looking good!

I just finished up at a 2012 Mortgage Outlook with CMHC today. There were a lot of great things said. Mainly that Ottawa's housing market is in great shape to be living right now and for the future! I know there was recent press about that and may have you believing otherwise, but here are a few notes that I took in from todays meeting that could change your mind.

- Ottawa is currently in a strong balanced market, and prices expected to RISE with rate of inflation.
A 2.7% increase in home prices over the year is projected.

- Ottawa is definitely more stable as compared to other markets in Canada. So don't believe everything you see on TV

- Average employment by the government in 2002-08 was approx 95k, while average in 2008-12 was just shy of 120k.

- The government cuts that we are hearing of now represent approximately 1.5% job loss. That isn't as large of an
impact as most are thinking or hearing about.

- Other job sectors are still growing.

- Ottawa is at the top of the employment rate at 84.9%(ages 25-45) second only to Kitchener.

- Ottawa has grown approx. 47% in terms of income over the last 11 years and Ottawa has the highest weekly salaries anywhere in canada at just over $1000.

- Mortgage rates are still historically low, there is no better time to be buying! I've heard a recent deal was 3.89% for 10 year fixed!!! That's insane.

- Average of approx. 6000 immigrants per year are coming to Ottawa. 50% are economic immigrants meaning that they have degrees and support job growth. This combined with other factors translate to approx 5800 new houses a year required here in Ottawa.

- New homes are sitting at about 24% higher pricing then resale homes.

I think all this information I gathered says it all. The Ottawa housing market is fantastic. Rates are lower than most of us will see in our lifetimes. Prices aren't going down like some people may be telling you. There's not many times like this to be buying and selling homes.

Canadian Housing Market Looking Strong!

Canada’s housing market has two good years ahead of it yet, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday, with low interest rates and a “moderately” expanding economy keeping price corrections at bay.

The Crown corporation – which insures Canadian mortgages – has had a consistently rosier view of the market than many private sector forecasters.

Canadian banks have recently issued reports probing the consequences of cheap money, and trying to predict whether there is a bubble in prices that will eventually pop and cause prices to crash. They are particularly concerned about Vancouver and Toronto, where some have predicted price corrections of up to 10 per cent because of overbuilding in the condo market.

But CMHC said Monday Canadian markets would “remain steady in 2012 and 2013.

“With the Canadian economy set to expand at a moderate pace and mortgage rates expected to remain low, activity levels in 2012 in both new home construction and sales of existing homes will stay close to levels seen in 2011,” said Mathieu Laberge, deputy chief economist.

Also in the forecast: “Housing starts will be in the range of 164,000 to 212,700 units in 2012, with a point forecast of 190,000 units. In 2013, housing starts will be in the range of 168,900 to 219,300 units, with a point forecast of 193,800 units.

Existing home sales will be in the range of 406,000 to 504,500 units in 2012, with a point forecast of 457,300 units. In 2013, MLS sales are expected to move up in the range of 417,600 to 517,400 units, with a point forecast of 468,200 units.

The average MLS price is forecast to be between $330,000 and $410,000 in 2012 and between $335,000 and $430,000 in 2013. CMHC’s point forecast for the average MLS price is $368,900 for 2012 and $379,000 for 2013. The moderate increases in the average MLS price are consistent with the balanced market conditions that occurred in 2011, and that are expected to continue in 2012 and 2013.”

*the above information is courtesy of The Globe and Mail Monday, Feb. 13, 2012

MARKET WATCH - FEB 2012

According to statistics released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), sales activity rose in more than half of all local markets, including some of Canada’s most active cities.

The momentum in sales activity provides clear evidence that low interest rates continue to draw homebuyers to the housing market. While buyers have become increasingly cautious, the hand off for sales activity going into the new year suggests that the Canada’s housing market will continue to benefit from low interest rates in 2012, and continue making a significant contribution to Canadian economic activity. However, prospects among housing markets and neighbourhoods differ, so buyers and sellers of the Ottawa area, feel free to contact me to see just how well we are doing here in Ottawa, or more specifically your neighbourhood.

Canadian Housing Market showing some Groth

Canadian home sales gained for the first time in five months in August, led by Ontario and British Columbia, though economists warned the uptick is likely to prove a blip in a declining trend.
Sales of existing homes through the Multiple Listing System rose 4.1% from July, figures released Wednesday by the Canadian Real Estate Association showed. It was the first increase since March, it said. On a year-over-year basis, sales are down 22.5%.
Canada’s housing market, which helped drag the economy out of recession, has been cooling rapidly over the past few months. Consumers made purchases that would have been made in summer earlier in the year to beat rising interest rates and the introduction of the harmonized sales tax in Ontario and B.C.
“A large part of the August increase comes from Ontario and B.C. because there was a lot of confusion in July as to how the HST would affect home sales,” CREA chief economist Gregory Klump said. “This is a bit of a relief rally and one car does not make a parade.”
Klump still expects housing sales to cool throughout the rest of the year, though he says it’s a healthy slowdown from the feverish levels seen at the end of last year.
TD Bank Financial said in a note the August figures are likely to have been a blip.
The bank said high household debt, the weakening employment outlook and declining personal income would all weigh on the market. It expects sales to drop by 20% next year and prices to decline 7%.
The average price of homes sold in August was $324,928, which is on a par with the same period last year. Excluding Alberta and New Brunswick, where prices eased, gains in every other province exceeded the national increase, CREA said.
Seasonally adjusted sales activity was either flat or increased in half of all markets across the country, it said.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in a report on Canada earlier this week warned prices may still be too high and more intervention may be needed to cool the market.
CREA president Georges Pahud on Wednesday rebuffed those suggestions, saying any further tightening in mortgage regulations risk damaging the market.
“Rising interest rates and a projected slowdown in job growth mean that the Canadian housing market is expected to continue to cool,” Pahud said. “This is overlooked in recent commentary that suggests further changes to mortgage regulations may be needed.”

-Ottawa Sun Sept 15, 2010

HST Clarifications - What the gov forgot to mention.

After discussing the HST with many of my clients, and other buyers and sellers that I have been encountering, I realized that there are many false views of the HST and its impact on the purchase and sale of homes. So I'd like to take the time to clarify two major things.

1. HST does NOT impact the sale price of a RESALE home. HST only affects the price of new construction homes, or homes that have not had a final occupancy permit.(ie no one has lived in the home yet)

So Buyers don't be scared that the price you see will have an extra 13% tacked on after July 1st.
Do be aware that HST will be charged on other services such as realtor fees and legal fees.

2. The minimum downpayment required was NOT pushed up to 10%. There was talk that that was going to be the case, however the government decided not to impliment that so the downpayment required for home buyers is still only 5%.

They did however change the downpayment required for investment properties to a minimum of %20. Also, don't let that intimidate you too much, as I have some lenders that can look past this new rule and find ways around it.

If you or anyone you know are thinking of buying or selling, please don't hesitate to contact me immediately to get started. I am your one stop shop for real estate needs and I have all of the contacts you will need in your home purchase, lawyers, inspectors, contractors, mortgage specialists, and movers. You name it, I got it. I look forward to helping you find your dream home soon.

Market finally settling down

Home sales activity in Canada came up short of the record for the month of April and new listings continued to climb, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

“Many of the sales that would normally have occurred in May were pulled back to April, due to buyers trying to avoid the May 1st transitional implementation date for the HST, as well as new mortgage regulations that came into effect April 19th,” said Ottawa Real Estate Board President Pierre de Varennes. “Buyers knew they would be paying 8% more for all of the service costs associated with a real estate transaction if their closing date was after July 1st, and that it might be more difficult to qualify for financing, so they moved quickly to avoid either situation. In addition, by comparison May 2009 was a record-breaking month as the floodgates opened on pent-up demand following the brief downturn in the market,” he added.

In general the Canadian real estate market is moving towards a balanced market where inventory is increasing well to meet demand. Buyers, sellers and REALTORS® can all relax and enter a sales transaction without pressure.

The easing trend in national sales activity masks a rising trend in a number of major markets. Real estate is local, so buyers and sellers should engage the services of a REALTOR® for knowledge about housing market trends in their market. For sellers, getting specific advice about home values in their local neighbourhood is crucial in a competitive market.

So looks like we are heading back to more of a buyers market in the coming months. Here in Ottawa prices will begin to level off to where they really should be. Those that have waited will have more choices and buying power. If you or anyone that you know could use my expertise, please feel free to contact me directly at amiller@kwottawa.ca or 613-447-7669.

Insulation

Everyone knows that home insulation provides tremendous energy savings, but most homeowners have questions about it. How do you know if you need more insulation? What can you do to improve it—without tearing your home apart?

The first thing to know is that for homes built before the 1970s, insulation was not a high priority in construction. These homes may benefit from adding insulation as well as filling the window and door gaps that naturally occur as the house settles over time. The good news is it’s easy to improve your home’s energy efficiency, no matter what its age.

Start at the TopOne of the first places to insulate is the attic. You can add loose-fill or batt insulation easily and cost-effectively. Just remember that if you think you may have vermiculite insulation, don’t disturb it—it may contain asbestos, so call a professional.

Fill the Spaces in the Walls

For your walls, you can choose to blow loose insulation directly into the wall. It’s fast and you’ll only have to patch the wall afterwards, rather than replace the entire surface. On the other hand, if you’re remodeling, you may have open walls and an opportunity to choose from many insulation options including blankets, rolls, rigid insulation and others.

Go Beyond the Walls

Many homeowners see savings from insulating electrical outlets, crawlspaces and doors. A rule of thumb is: a 1/8" space between a standard exterior door and the threshold is equivalent to a two square inch hole in the wall. Realigning your doors and replacing the door sweep are easy fixes.

Consider Replacing Windows

Weather-stripping your windows can reduce energy loss. However, up to 50% of a home’s heating and cooling needs results from heat gain and loss through windows, so actually replacing your old windows may provide the most savings.

Insulation Adds Up to Big Savings

When you insulate, not only do you start saving money on your energy bills, the government also provides financial benefits to homeowners who make their home more energy efficient. Be sure to save your receipts.

Improvements like adding insulation can often add to the resale value: potential buyers will want to know all about them. And even if you’re not quite ready to move yet, you can still enjoy a cost savings and a comfortable home.

Summer coming to an end, but the market is HOT!

Well the summer may be almost over, but the housing market here in Ottawa is hotter than ever. Homes that are priced properly are selling as though it were spring time. I myself sold my last listing in only 3 days for 99% of the asking price!

If you are thinking of buying or selling now is the time to do it. My advice to friends has been to get it done before the winter hits. The mortgage rates are still at all time lows but won't last for long.

Don't waste time waiting for the best deal in town, there is just too much competition out there right now. Let me find a place that has all of your NEEDS covered, and we can work on the WANTS after that. No house is perfect for everyone, and it is important to distiguish that fact.

If you are thinking about buying, or you know of someone who is, please don't miss the boat on these low mortgage rates, contact me as soon as you can. Alternatively, if you or someone you know is looking to sell your home, with all these buyers out there, it is a no brainer that a well priced home, that is marketed properly and shows well, will sell quickly.

Sincerely,

Andrew Miller
Sales Representative
Keller Williams Ottawa Realty Ltd.
Brokerage, Independently Owned and Operated
610 Bronson Avenue
Ottawa, Ontario
K1S 4E6
Office: (613) 236-5959
Direct: (613) 447-7669
Fax: (613) 235-1515
Email: amiller@kwottawa.ca

Pricing Strategy

According to a recent report, about 75% of homebuyers surf the Web to begin their home search. That means home buyers are well aware of what properties are available on the market and the prices they are selling for. Therefore, now more than ever, pricing is the key to selling your home.

Some sellers think that a higher price will give them some negotiating room. But in fact many buyers don't even look at a property that is overpriced, much less make an offer on it.

This can lead to the property’s becoming “shop-worn.” Buyers often inquire about the length of time a property has been on the market. If it has been on the market a long time, they wonder if there is something wrong with it. The sellers then have to drop the price, taking less than they might have if they had priced it correctly to begin with.

Homes that are well-priced attract the buyers in their price range. The buyer's perception is that the home is a good buy, and then the seller is positioned to receive the listing price or close to it.

Please feel free to call or email me if you have any questions. I would be happy to provide you with a market evaluation on your home to make sure it is competitively priced in the marketplace so you will receive the best offer.

Weather may be poor but the housing market is HOT!

Last October was the beginning of some tough times for most canadians, as well as most other parts of the world. This has been the first recession of the new millenium. Although most of the nation's housing market was strongly affected by the recession, here in the nations capital, things remained fairly stable. Luckily for us prices didn't see a huge decline and now that signs of the improving economy are in our sights, the market is heating up quite a bit.

We have low interest rates, the lowest they have been in years in fact. The government has decided to freeze the prime rate at 2.25% until the second quarter of 2010(June). This is great news if you were deciding to make a purchase in the next year.

The time to buy is now, while the rates are still at an all time low, and before the housing prices begin to rise again.

If you or anyone you know are thinking of buying or selling, please don't hesitate to contact me immediately to get started. I am your one stop shop for real estate needs and I have all of the contacts you will need in your home purchase, lawyers, inspectors, contractors, mortgage specialists, and movers. You name it, I got it. I look forward to helping you find your dream home soon.

Your Downpayment for your purchase

Most lenders require you to pay a portion of your own funds--the down payment--toward the purchase of a home. Saving for a down payment can be one of the most challenging steps in buying a home.

Your down payment plus your pre-approved loan amount will determine how much home you can afford. A down payment can come from many places: savings, investments such as stocks and bonds, gifts from relatives, company bonuses, equity in other assets, and life insurance policies, to name a few. Then again, there may be home mortgage alternatives that do not require a down payment.

If you currently own a home, then you may want the equity you have built in that house to serve as the down payment on your next home. But how much is your current home worth? I would be happy to provide you with a market valuation so that you will know its current value.
With some basic information about your home, I can establish a list of comparable properties in your area as reported by the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). If you would like a more precise and thorough market evaluation, I can stop by for a quick view of your home.

Please call or email me if you are interested in a free market evaluation of your home or if you have any questions.

Canadian Housing Market Bouncing Back

Amid the month-to-month torrent of real estate statistics, economists pegged particular significance on new numbers because they reveal widespread strength at strong prices and showed mounting momentum over a three-month span, carried by what had been the weakest region – the West.

It's a radically stark contrast with the United States, where prices – after three long years – are still falling, down a third from their bubble peak.

In Canada, buyers are back, sales are surging, and prices are edging up. “People thought the world was coming to an end,” said Mr. Stewart, a top-selling agent at his Century 21 office near
False Creek in downtown Vancouver. “Now, the fiscal stimulus and ultralow interest rates have supercharged real estate.”

Almost 150,000 sales of existing houses and condominiums were tallied in the April-May-June period, according to Canadian Real Estate Association data published Tuesday. It was the fourth-best quarter ever since CREA began recording the sales data in 1994, the industry marketing group said.

In frigid January, by comparison, barely 16,000 houses were sold. The “Phoenix-like rise” of real estate sales is the “most astonishing economic development of 2009,” economists at
BMO Nesbitt Burns declared. And even though there are asterisks – the job market remains weak – Canada appears to have skirted “the clutches of a lengthy, painful downturn.”

Nationally, for the April-June period, sales were up 1.4 per cent from a year ago. It was the first quarter that markeda year-over-year advance since late 2007, and the period strengthened as the spring warmed. In June, sales were up 22.8 per cent nationally – and prices climbed 4 per cent. In Toronto, the sales jump was 27.4 per cent, with prices up 2 per cent.

In fact, the average price of a home in Canada has never been higher. At $318,700, the figure is slightly higher than the record set a year ago, pushed up by the flurry of sales in expensive big-city markets.